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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kocaelispor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kocaelispor and Kayserispor finished level at 1-1 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.01 xG and Kayserispor 1.28 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.71 / defence 1.10 against Kayserispor attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/38 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 29% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 43%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 33%, Kayserispor 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Kayserispor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kocaelispor 0.00 PPG, Kayserispor 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kayserispor conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights