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Shock result as Fatih Karagümrük defy the odds to beat Kocaelispor 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fatih Karagümrük beat Kocaelispor 0-1 at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.24 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.68 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kocaelispor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.71 / defence 0.92 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.66 / defence 1.20, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 46% | Draw 37% | Fatih Karagümrük 17%, with Kocaelispor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 28%, Fatih Karagümrük 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Kocaelispor arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights