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Shock result as Kocaelispor defy the odds to beat Eyüpspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kocaelispor beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 0.89 xG and Eyüpspor 0.91 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.71 / defence 1.00 against Eyüpspor attack 0.70 / defence 0.91, drawn from 7/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 31% | Draw 38% | Eyüpspor 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kocaelispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 29%, Eyüpspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 0.71 PPG against 0.29. Form was overturned, with Kocaelispor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights