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Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kayserispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Kayserispor 1-3 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.03 xG and Trabzonspor 2.19 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 2.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.79 / defence 1.29 against Trabzonspor attack 1.39 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 14% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 61%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 48%, Trabzonspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights