Kayserispor 2-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Rizespor meet at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kayserispor have posted 3W 1D 6L at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Rizespor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rizespor's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rizespor arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Kayserispor, 3 for Rizespor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Kayserispor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rizespor — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 48% versus Rizespor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 50% | Rizespor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.03 xG and Rizespor 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.688 / defence 1.387 | Rizespor attack 1.150 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.162. Kayserispor's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Kayserispor games / 66 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 18% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 54%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Rizespor 1.85. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 40% | Rizespor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 18% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Kayserispor 1.03 / Rizespor 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.688 / def 1.387 | Rizespor attack 1.150 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Rizespor xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Rizespor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Rizespor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Kayserispor 2 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Rizespor part of?
Kayserispor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 18% chance of winning, Rizespor a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Kayserispor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
Record (7 meetings): Kayserispor 3W | Draws 1 | Rizespor 3W.
What form are Kayserispor and Rizespor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.69x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.15x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
18%
5.43
28%
3.64
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.89
1.85
Rizespor xG
5.43
18%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
16%
6.38
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
3%
34.61
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.85 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 15W 23D 28L from 66 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 28L across 66 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.30 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 11W 8D 13L from 32 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 7W 8D 17L across 32 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.41 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 15W 23D 28L in their last 66 games (1.03 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 24W 14D 28L in their last 66 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Rizespor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.28 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kayserispor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kayserispor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 4, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Kayserispor 2-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 47%, Rizespor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Kayserispor and 62% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 31% of games; Rizespor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 62% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Kayserispor's matches and 62% of Rizespor's.
Do Kayserispor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Rizespor 2-0 at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.03 xG and Rizespor 1.85 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.69 / defence 1.39 against Rizespor attack 1.15 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 18% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 54%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Kayserispor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Rizespor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.03 PPG, Rizespor 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.