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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kocaelispor edge out Kayserispor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kocaelispor beat Kayserispor 1-2 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.00 xG and Kocaelispor 1.13 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kocaelispor outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.77 / defence 1.30 against Kocaelispor attack 0.66 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 28% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kocaelispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Kocaelispor 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Kocaelispor's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Kocaelispor arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights