🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Kasımpaşa 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kayserispor beat Kasımpaşa 1-0 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 2.09 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.52 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kayserispor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.23 / defence 1.16, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 50% | Draw 22% | Kasımpaşa 28%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Kasımpaşa 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.18 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights