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Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kayserispor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.78 / defence 1.37 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.82 / defence 1.40, drawn from 62/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 37% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kayserispor 0.77 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 0.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights