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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kayserispor and Bodrum FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kayserispor and Bodrum FK finished level at 1-1 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.32 xG and Bodrum FK 0.66 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against Bodrum FK attack 0.62 / defence 0.77, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 53% | Draw 29% | Bodrum FK 18%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Bodrum FK 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Bodrum FK's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.29 PPG, Bodrum FK 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights