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Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kayserispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Kayserispor 0-3 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 0.96 xG and Başakşehir 1.83 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Başakşehir outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against Başakşehir attack 1.14 / defence 0.87, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 16% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 55%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 48%, Başakşehir 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Başakşehir's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.11 PPG, Başakşehir 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights