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Kayserispor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Başakşehir.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kayserispor beat Başakşehir 3-1 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.49 xG and Başakşehir 1.44 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against Başakşehir attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 38% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 36%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Başakşehir 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Başakşehir's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Kayserispor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights