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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Kayserispor take on Antalyaspor.

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Full Analysis

Kadir Has Stadium plays host to Kayserispor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 10:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Kayserispor have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Kadir Has Stadium, Kayserispor have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Kayserispor, 1.00 for Antalyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kayserispor lead 3W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 52% versus Antalyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 50% | Antalyaspor 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 0.88 xG and Antalyaspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.746 / defence 1.372 | Antalyaspor attack 0.644 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.300. Kayserispor's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Kayserispor games / 58 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kayserispor 24% | Draw 38% | Antalyaspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 4.17 | Draw 2.63 | Antalyaspor 2.63. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Antalyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.

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