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Stalemate at Kayserispor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Kayserispor and Alanyaspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.27 xG and Alanyaspor 1.84 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.93 / defence 1.41 against Alanyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 23% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 48%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 51%, Alanyaspor 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.14 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights