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Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Kasımpaşa 0-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.47 xG and Trabzonspor 1.38 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kasımpaşa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.11 / defence 1.12 against Trabzonspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 35%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 68%, Trabzonspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.27 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights