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Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Kasımpaşa 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Kasımpaşa 0-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 0.98 xG and Samsunspor 1.30 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kasımpaşa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.74 / defence 0.96 against Samsunspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 24% | Draw 36% | Samsunspor 40%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 58%, Samsunspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Samsunspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights