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Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Rizespor 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Rizespor 3-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.95 xG and Rizespor 1.56 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.07 / defence 1.37 against Rizespor attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 30%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 66%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Rizespor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.42 PPG, Rizespor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights