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Shock result as Gaziantep FK defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK beat Kasımpaşa 2-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.60 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.12 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Gaziantep FK outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 38/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 49% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 27%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Gaziantep FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 66%, Gaziantep FK 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.24 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights