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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray finished level at 3-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.35 xG and Galatasaray 2.47 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.17 / defence 1.39 against Galatasaray attack 1.49 / defence 0.71, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 19% | Draw 20% | Galatasaray 61%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 68%, Galatasaray 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Galatasaray's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.68 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Galatasaray (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights