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Shock result as Göztepe defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Kasımpaşa 1-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 2.49 xG and Göztepe 1.49 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 / defence 1.24 against Göztepe attack 0.94 / defence 1.32, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 19% | Göztepe 22%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Göztepe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 66%, Göztepe 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Göztepe's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.34 PPG, Göztepe 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights