Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa host Fenerbahçe at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 5W 4D 1L at — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at .
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 1.60 PPG, Fenerbahçe 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 encounters against Kasımpaşa's 0 victories.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 57% versus Fenerbahçe 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 45% | Fenerbahçe 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.22 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.055 / defence 0.935 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.118 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Kasımpaşa games / 42 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 37%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Fenerbahçe 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Kasımpaşa 40% | Fenerbahçe 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 18 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.22 / Fenerbahçe 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.055 / def 0.935 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.118 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Fenerbahçe xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 18 December 2026.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 36% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
Record (10 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 8W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.05x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.67
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.46
1.24
Fenerbahçe xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.24 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 15D 16L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.14 PPG from 42 outings (26W 12D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 6W 9D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.00 points per game from 21 outings (12W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.36 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 11W 15D 16L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 26W 12D 4L in their last 42 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.29 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 48%, Fenerbahçe 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Kasımpaşa) and 62% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 48%; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 43% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 62% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.