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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, as Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.22 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.96 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fenerbahçe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.05 / defence 1.26 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.30 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 22% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 53%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 63%, Fenerbahçe 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights