Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.74) and Eyüpspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.91x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 52/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
28%
3.52
29%
3.44
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.50
1.40
Eyüpspor xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.40 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.