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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, as Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.09 xG and Beşiktaş 1.55 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Beşiktaş attack 1.12 / defence 0.83, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 24% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 45%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 60%, Beşiktaş 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights