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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, as Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.50 xG and Beşiktaş 1.66 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.24 / defence 1.36 against Beşiktaş attack 1.01 / defence 0.75, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 41%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 66%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.40 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights