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Shock result as Başakşehir defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Kasımpaşa 2-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 2.17 xG and Başakşehir 1.84 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Başakşehir outscored their 1.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 / defence 1.17 against Başakşehir attack 1.25 / defence 1.16, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 20% | Başakşehir 34%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 65%, Başakşehir 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Başakşehir's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.44 PPG, Başakşehir 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights