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Stalemate at Kasımpaşa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 0.99 xG and Antalyaspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Antalyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.80 / defence 1.05 against Antalyaspor attack 0.79 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 38% | Antalyaspor 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 58%, Antalyaspor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.17 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights