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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor encounter.

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Analysis

Alanyaspor make the trip to to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Kasımpaşa, 1.10 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Across 10 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Kasımpaşa and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 53% versus Alanyaspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 44% | Alanyaspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.30 xG and Alanyaspor 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.859 / defence 0.910 | Alanyaspor attack 0.930 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Kasımpaşa games / 34 Alanyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 42% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Alanyaspor 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 20% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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