Hatayspor 5-2 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hatayspor at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Yeni Malatyaspor meet at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Yeni Malatyaspor (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yeni Malatyaspor's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Hatayspor's favour (1.00 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hatayspor 1W, Yeni Malatyaspor 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Hatayspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Yeni Malatyaspor — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 8% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 50% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 58% | Yeni Malatyaspor 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.21 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.074 / defence 1.251 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.445 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.182. Data: 26 Hatayspor games / 26 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 49% | Draw 32% | Yeni Malatyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Yeni Malatyaspor 5.00. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Yeni Malatyaspor's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 70% | Yeni Malatyaspor 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 49% | Draw 32% | Yeni Malatyaspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Hatayspor 1.21 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.074 / def 1.251 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.445 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
34%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Hatayspor 5 - 2 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 49% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Hatayspor and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 0 | Yeni Malatyaspor 0W.
What form are Hatayspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 1.07x the league average against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Yeni Malatyaspor's attack (0.45x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
49%
2.05
32%
3.16
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
1.87
0.66
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
6%
17.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hatayspor and 0.66 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor come into this having played 26 games, going 12W 3D 11L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Yeni Malatyaspor sit at 0.65 PPG from 26 outings (4W 5D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hatayspor's home form reads 7W 2D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Yeni Malatyaspor have taken 0.42 points per game from 12 outings (1W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 0.77 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 12W 3D 11L in their last 26 games (1.50 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 5D 17L in their last 26 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.92 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
0
Draws
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Hatayspor 5-2 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Yeni Malatyaspor see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 67%, Yeni Malatyaspor 8% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Hatayspor) and 17% (Yeni Malatyaspor).
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 8% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatayspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Hatayspor's recent games and 17% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hatayspor run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Yeni Malatyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 5-2 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.21 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.66 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yeni Malatyaspor outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.25 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.45 / defence 0.99, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 49% | Draw 32% | Yeni Malatyaspor 20%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 58%, Yeni Malatyaspor 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.65. That form edge translated into the three points. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.