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Prediction vindicated as Hatayspor edge out Sivasspor 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hatayspor beat Sivasspor 3-2 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.50 xG and Sivasspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sivasspor outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Sivasspor attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 48% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 26%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 49%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hatayspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Sivasspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.90 PPG, Sivasspor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights