Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.76) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.78x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
50%
1.99
30%
3.38
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.48
0.92
Adana Demirspor xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
4%
23.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Hatayspor and 0.92 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.