🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Trabzonspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 21 as Gençlerbirliği S.K. welcome Trabzonspor to Eryaman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Gençlerbirliği S.K. — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Gençlerbirliği S.K. haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have posted 4W 3D 3L at Eryaman Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gençlerbirliği S.K. are significantly better at Eryaman Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Trabzonspor's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gençlerbirliği S.K. register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 0 for Trabzonspor and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Gençlerbirliği S.K. winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Gençlerbirliği S.K. in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50% versus Trabzonspor 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 53% | Trabzonspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.36 xG and Trabzonspor 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.941 / defence 1.073 | Trabzonspor attack 1.166 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Gençlerbirliği S.K. games / 34 Trabzonspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 34% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 60% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights