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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.71 xG and Samsunspor 1.68 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.21 / defence 1.18 against Samsunspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.07, drawn from 17/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 36% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 35%, with Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 59%, Samsunspor 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Samsunspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights