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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Gençlerbirliği S.K. edge out Kocaelispor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Kocaelispor 1-0 at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.24 xG and Kocaelispor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kocaelispor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.79 / defence 1.23 against Kocaelispor attack 0.73 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 38% | Draw 35% | Kocaelispor 27%, with Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 53%, Kocaelispor 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Kocaelispor's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.83 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gençlerbirliği S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights