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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gaziantep FK face Trabzonspor.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Trabzonspor travel to Kalyon Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Gaziantep FK stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Kalyon Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Kalyon Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Trabzonspor — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Trabzonspor away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Trabzonspor — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Trabzonspor, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Gaziantep FK.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Trabzonspor have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Gaziantep FK in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 59% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 62% | Trabzonspor 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.30 xG and Trabzonspor 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.963 / defence 1.148 | Trabzonspor attack 1.354 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.289. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Gaziantep FK games / 58 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 22% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 51%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Trabzonspor 1.96. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

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