🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Gaziantep FK and Rizespor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, as Gaziantep FK and Rizespor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.57 xG and Rizespor 1.86 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.12 / defence 1.25 against Rizespor attack 1.15 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 31% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 43%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 60%, Rizespor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Rizespor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.34 PPG, Rizespor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights