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Shock result as Eyüpspor defy the odds to beat Gaziantep FK 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Gaziantep FK 1-2 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.42 xG and Eyüpspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.15 / defence 1.22 against Eyüpspor attack 0.60 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 45% | Draw 31% | Eyüpspor 24%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Eyüpspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 61%, Eyüpspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.37 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights