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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gaziantep FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Eyüpspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK beat Eyüpspor 3-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.15 xG and Eyüpspor 0.76 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gaziantep FK beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.82 / defence 0.69 against Eyüpspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 61/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 33% | Eyüpspor 23%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 58%, Eyüpspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.33 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights