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Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Gaziantep FK 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Gaziantep FK 1-2 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.20 xG and Başakşehir 1.30 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Başakşehir attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 31% | Draw 33% | Başakşehir 36%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 62%, Başakşehir 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Başakşehir's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.19 PPG, Başakşehir 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights