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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.37 xG and Alanyaspor 1.49 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Alanyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 33% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 38%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 62%, Alanyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.24 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights