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Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Gaziantep FK 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 0-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.63 xG and Alanyaspor 0.96 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gaziantep FK fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.89 / defence 0.86 against Alanyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 22%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 54%, Alanyaspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.23 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights