Gaziantep FK 1-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 44%, yet in-form Adana Demirspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor meet at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gaziantep FK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Adana Demirspor arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gaziantep FK lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 56% versus Adana Demirspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 52% | Adana Demirspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.73 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.183 / defence 0.949 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.229 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.250. Adana Demirspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.229 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Gaziantep FK games / 46 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Adana Demirspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Adana Demirspor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 60% | Adana Demirspor 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.73 / Adana Demirspor 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.183 / def 0.949 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.229 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Adana Demirspor xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 44% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor?
Record (2 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 2W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (1.23x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
44%
2.27
23%
4.30
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.18
1.46
Adana Demirspor xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
6%
17.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.46 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 15W 12D 19L from 46 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 14L across 46 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.57 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 13W 8D 1L from 22 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 8W 5D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.65 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 15W 12D 19L in their last 46 games (1.24 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 20W 12D 14L in their last 46 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.14 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gaziantep FK won 1-6 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Adana Demirspor 2-2 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 59%, Adana Demirspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Gaziantep FK) and 64% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Gaziantep FK's games and 59% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 64% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor finished level at 1-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.73 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.46 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.18 / defence 0.95 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.23 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 33%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 52%, Adana Demirspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.24 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.