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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Galatasaray run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sivasspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galatasaray beat Sivasspor 4-1 at RAMS Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 2.27 xG and Sivasspor 0.75 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Galatasaray beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.17 / defence 0.77 against Sivasspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 72% | Draw 17% | Sivasspor 11%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 67%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galatasaray's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Sivasspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.64 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Galatasaray (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.53 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights