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Poisson model favours Galatasaray (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Galatasaray face Eyüpspor.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Eyüpspor travel to Rams Park to take on Galatasaray. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Galatasaray have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Galatasaray have posted 7W 3D 0L at Rams Park — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Galatasaray are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Galatasaray have won 2, Eyüpspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Galatasaray winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Galatasaray trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Eyüpspor trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 56% versus Eyüpspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 67% | Eyüpspor 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.98 xG and Eyüpspor 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 1.457 / defence 0.794 | Eyüpspor attack 0.886 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.318. Galatasaray carry an above-average attack strength of 1.457 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Galatasaray's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Galatasaray games / 57 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Galatasaray 59% | Draw 27% | Eyüpspor 14%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Eyüpspor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Galatasaray are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Galatasaray 70% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.

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