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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Galatasaray and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galatasaray and Beşiktaş finished level at 1-1 at Rams Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 2.00 xG and Beşiktaş 1.08 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Galatasaray fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.43 / defence 0.75 against Beşiktaş attack 1.11 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 57% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 18%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 67%, Beşiktaş 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galatasaray's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 1.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights