🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Göztepe 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Göztepe 1-2 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.17 xG and Trabzonspor 0.96 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.89 / defence 0.61 against Trabzonspor attack 1.20 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 37% | Draw 37% | Trabzonspor 26%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 46%, Trabzonspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.52 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights