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Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Samsunspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Samsunspor 2-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.15 xG and Samsunspor 1.12 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Samsunspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.89 / defence 0.71 against Samsunspor attack 1.21 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 32% | Draw 36% | Samsunspor 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Göztepe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 46%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Samsunspor's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.52 PPG, Samsunspor 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights