Göztepe vs Rizespor – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Göztepe run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rizespor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Rizespor 3-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.83 xG and Rizespor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Rizespor attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 54% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 19%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 60%, Rizespor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Rizespor's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.67 PPG, Rizespor 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights