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Stalemate at Göztepe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe and Kocaelispor finished level at 0-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.66 xG and Kocaelispor 0.64 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Göztepe fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.02 / defence 0.65 against Kocaelispor attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 48/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 60% | Draw 27% | Kocaelispor 12%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 25%, Kocaelispor 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kocaelispor's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights