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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Göztepe and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, as Göztepe and Kasımpaşa drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.26 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.05 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 38% | Draw 34% | Kasımpaşa 28%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 47%, Kasımpaşa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.50 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights