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Dominant Göztepe run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Kasımpaşa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Kasımpaşa 5-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.69 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.33 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.23 / defence 0.87, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 44% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 28%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 65%, Kasımpaşa 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights